The recent U.S. attack on Venezuela has sent shockwaves through the region, creating a complex web of risks and opportunities for guerrilla groups operating along the Colombia-Venezuela border. This development has sparked fears of potential betrayal by Venezuelan officials and raised concerns about the possibility of a wider conflict if U.S. forces were to engage on the ground.
A Call for Unity
In a surprising move, the leader of a prominent guerrilla faction has called for unity among armed groups to resist the U.S. presence in Venezuela. Jorge Barrera, a CBC News journalist, reports on this unprecedented call for solidarity.
The region's most powerful guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), has reportedly taken steps to reconfigure its security measures and consolidate its presence in certain communities within Venezuela. Jorge Mantilla, an expert in armed conflicts and national security based in Bogotá, sheds light on these developments.
ELN's Response and Anticipation
Mantilla reveals that the ELN has suspended training operations and plans to develop a special forces unit with the Venezuelan military. This suggests a cautious approach by the group, as they navigate the uncertain political landscape. Interestingly, the ELN has long anticipated a U.S. attack on Venezuela, with one of its chief negotiators, Pablo Beltrán, suggesting as much in an interview last year.
Furthermore, Mantilla mentions a letter sent by the ELN to President Nicolás Maduro in 2019, intercepted by Colombian intelligence, warning of potential traitors within the Venezuelan military.
Continental Ambitions and Fragmentation
The U.S. attack could potentially open doors for the ELN to achieve its long-standing goal of becoming a continental guerrilla force. If the U.S. military establishes a presence in Venezuela or if the Venezuelan regime fragments, the ELN could seize the opportunity to expand its influence across Latin America.
However, not everyone is convinced that such a scenario is likely. Gerson Arias, a researcher with Colombia's Ideas for Peace Foundation, doubts that anyone will heed the call for unity issued by Ivan Mordisco, a leader of a group that splintered from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Arias cites a lack of trust in Mordisco and his status as one of Colombia's most wanted criminals.
A Long History with Venezuela
The ELN, with an estimated force of 6,000 to 8,000 members, has a strong presence in both Colombia and Venezuela, controlling roughly 1,200 kilometres of borderlands. Its long history with the Venezuelan regime, dating back to the presidency of Hugo Chávez, has solidified its political and ideological alignment with the country.
Arias explains that the ELN operates in the southern Venezuelan states of Amazonas and Bolivar, including areas rich in natural resources like rare earth minerals. The group relies on illegal mining and the drug trade for revenue, further entrenching its presence in the region.
The Way Forward
As the situation unfolds, the U.S. and Colombian governments have agreed to work together to combat the ELN. President Gustavo Petro of Colombia is scheduled to visit the White House next month to discuss this matter further.
Eliana Paola Zafra, a human rights advocate in the border city of Cúcuta, Colombia, emphasizes the need for a comprehensive peace strategy. She argues that empowering communities in Latin America to defend life, peace, and human rights is crucial for long-lasting stability.
This complex web of geopolitical tensions and potential alliances leaves many questions unanswered. What do you think? Will the ELN's call for unity be successful? How will the U.S. and Colombian governments navigate this delicate situation? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
