The Premier League title race is heating up, with Arsenal leading Manchester City by seven points. With eight games left to play, the Gunners are on the cusp of their first league title in 19 years. But who has the easier run-in? This article explores five different ways to analyze the remaining fixtures and the implications for the title race.
The Opta Power Rankings: A Slight Edge to Arsenal
One way to assess fixture difficulty is through the Opta Power Rankings. These rankings assign every club in the world a rating between 0 and 100 based on their strength. By averaging the ratings of each team’s remaining opponents, we can estimate the overall difficulty of their run-in.
According to this measure, Arsenal have the slightly easier path. Their remaining opponents carry an average rating of 90.2, compared with 91.4 for Man City. However, this measure alone doesn't account for home advantage.
Home and Away Form: A Slight Edge to Arsenal
To account for home advantage, we layer in some home and away analysis. The tables below show each of Arsenal and City’s remaining fixtures using the opponent’s average points per game in the relevant venue (i.e. home or away).
When those venue-specific figures are averaged across the remaining fixtures, the comparison again favours Arsenal. Their remaining opponents average 1.20 points per game in the relevant home or away setting, compared with 1.46 for Manchester City.
Last Season’s Results: A Slight Edge to City
Another simple way to view the run-in is to examine how each side performed in the corresponding fixtures last season and assume similar results. Across the remaining eight comparable fixtures, Manchester City took 19 points last season (P8 W6 D1 L1) while Arsenal collected 14 (P7 W4 D2 L1).
If those exact totals were replicated this year, Arsenal would still win the title, but by only two points. This suggests that City might have a slight edge based on last season's results.
The Opta Supercomputer: A Clear Edge to Arsenal
Perhaps we should stop trying to guess ourselves and just ask the Opta supercomputer, which has simulated the rest of the Premier League season 10,000 times. It, too, gives Arsenal a commanding advantage.
Across the model’s 10,000 most recent simulations, Arteta’s side win the title 94.4% of the time, making them overwhelming favourites to finish top.
History: A Clear Edge to Arsenal
History also looks kindly on Arsenal. Only once in Premier League history has a team led the table by seven or more points after 30 matches and failed to win the title. That came in 1997-98, when Manchester United held a nine-point lead over Arsenal in March but had played three more games than the Gunners. Arsène Wenger’s side eventually completed the comeback and won the title by a single point.
Every other instance of a seven-point lead at this stage of the season has ended with the leaders lifting the trophy. That is 12 successes from 13 attempts, a 92.3% conversion rate.
The Final Hurdle: Psychological Pressure
So by most measures, Arsenal have to be considered strong favourites from here. But recent history has shown us how difficult the final step can be. Arsenal have previously reached seemingly commanding positions in title races only to fall short. The final hurdle, it seems, is more often psychological than statistical for them.
The biggest challenge between Arsenal and the title may not be Manchester City, but overcoming the pressure of finishing the job.
